A hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate and forecast ozone through space and time [An article from: Atmospheric Environment]
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- Language:English (Published)
- Publication Date:March 1, 2005
This digital document is a journal article from Atmospheric Environment, published by Elsevier in 2005. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
A Bayesian hierarchical regime switching model describing the spatial-temporal behavior of ozone (O"3) within a domain covering Lake Michigan during spring-summer 1999 is developed. The model incorporates linkages between ozone and meteorology. It is specifically formulated to identify meteorological regimes conducive of high ozone levels and allow ozone behavior during these periods to be different from typical ozone behavior. The model is used to estimate or forecast spatial fields of O"3 conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorology including temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed and direction. The model is successful at forecasting the onset of periods of high ozone levels, but more work is needed to also accurately identify departures from these periods.
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