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American Poems: Books: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
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 Home » Books » The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

  • List Price: $27.97
  • Buy New: $20.95
  • as of 9/17/2014 13:23 EDT details
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In Stock
  • Seller:Audible, Inc. (US)
  • Sales Rank:1,301
  • Format:Unabridged
  • Language:English (Unknown)
  • Media:Audible Audio Edition
  • Running Time:56580 Minutes
  • Publication Date:September 27, 2012
  • ASIN:B009HL6444
Availability:Usually ships in 1-2 business days


Editorial Reviews:
Synopsis

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation's most influential political forecasters.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they n...


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